ai economist
EconoJax: A Fast & Scalable Economic Simulation in Jax
Ponse, Koen, Plaat, Aske, van Stein, Niki, Moerland, Thomas M.
Accurate economic simulations often require many experimental runs, particularly when combined with reinforcement learning. Unfortunately, training reinforcement learning agents in multi-agent economic environments can be slow. This paper introduces EconoJax, a fast simulated economy, based on the AI economist. EconoJax, and its training pipeline, are completely written in JAX. This allows EconoJax to scale to large population sizes and perform large experiments, while keeping training times within minutes. Through experiments with populations of 100 agents, we show how real-world economic behavior emerges through training within 15 minutes, in contrast to previous work that required several days. To aid and inspire researchers to build more rich and dynamic economic simulations, we open-source EconoJax on Github at: https://github.com/ponseko/econojax.
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Large Legislative Models: Towards Efficient AI Policymaking in Economic Simulations
Gasztowtt, Henry, Smith, Benjamin, Zhu, Vincent, Bai, Qinxun, Zhang, Edwin
The improvement of economic policymaking presents an opportunity for broad societal benefit, a notion that has inspired research towards AI-driven policymaking tools. AI policymaking holds the potential to surpass human performance through the ability to process data quickly at scale. However, existing RL-based methods exhibit sample inefficiency, and are further limited by an inability to flexibly incorporate nuanced information into their decision-making processes. Thus, we propose a novel method in which we instead utilize pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs), as sample-efficient policymakers in socially complex multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) scenarios. We demonstrate significant efficiency gains, outperforming existing methods across three environments. Our code is available at https://github.com/hegasz/large-legislative-models.
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Learning to Play General-Sum Games Against Multiple Boundedly Rational Agents
Zhao, Eric, Trott, Alexander R., Xiong, Caiming, Zheng, Stephan
We study the problem of training a principal in a multi-agent general-sum game using reinforcement learning (RL). Learning a robust principal policy requires anticipating the worst possible strategic responses of other agents, which is generally NP-hard. However, we show that no-regret dynamics can identify these worst-case responses in poly-time in smooth games. We propose a framework that uses this policy evaluation method for efficiently learning a robust principal policy using RL. This framework can be extended to provide robustness to boundedly rational agents too. Our motivating application is automated mechanism design: we empirically demonstrate our framework learns robust mechanisms in both matrix games and complex spatiotemporal games. In particular, we learn a dynamic tax policy that improves the welfare of a simulated trade-and-barter economy by 15%, even when facing previously unseen boundedly rational RL taxpayers.
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Deep Science: AI simulates economies and predicts startup success – TechCrunch
Research in the field of machine learning and AI, now a key technology in practically every industry and company, is far too voluminous for anyone to read it all. This column aims to collect some of the most relevant recent discoveries and papers -- particularly in, but not limited to, artificial intelligence -- and explain why they matter. This week in AI, scientists conducted a fascinating experiment to predict how "market-driven" platforms like food delivery and ride-hailing businesses affect the overall economy when they're optimized for different objectives, like maximizing revenue. Elsewhere, demonstrating the versatility of AI, a team hailing from ETH Zurich developed a system that can read tree heights from satellite images, while a separate group of researchers tested a system to predict a startup's success from public web data. The market-driven platform work builds on Salesforce's AI Economist, an open source research environment for understanding how AI could improve economic policy.
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Artificial Intelligence Could be a Silver Bullet for Tax Systems
Court documents released in August revealed that Swiss tax officials are investigating art dealer and freeport magnate Yves Bouvier for allegedly concealing CHF 330 million in profits. The Swiss authorities believe that Bouvier used a fictitious residence in Singapore to evade taxes in his home country, and confiscated one of Bouvier's properties, reportedly worth CHF 4.5 million, as a pledge while they continue investigating his finances. The investigation, however, was nearly derailed in its early stages due to a single vulnerable tax official. An escort girl known only as Sarah has testified that in September 2017, Yves Bouvier sent her to a conference to seduce a key official with Switzerland's Federal Tax Administration. Sarah's honeypot adventure took place mere months after Swiss tax officials had begun looking into Bouvier's finances.
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Now hiring AI futurists: It's time for artificial intelligence to take a seat in the C-Suite ZDNet
Machine learning, task automation and robotics are already widely used in business. These and other AI technologies are about to multiply, and we look at how organizations can best take advantage of them. COVID-19 disruption has left enterprises with no choice but to reassess digital transformation investments and roadmaps. While less important projects are delayed, transformation projects involving AI and automation are receiving a lot of attention right now. In just the last 60 days, the adoption of varying levels of AI technologies across the enterprise surged with an incredible sense of urgency.
The AI Economist: Improving Equality and Productivity with AI-Driven Tax Policies
Our work fits within a larger context of recent advances in RL. RL has been used to train AIs to win competitive games, such as Go, Dota, and Starcraft. In those settings, the RL objective is inherently adversarial ("beat-the-other-team"). Machine learning has also been used for the design of auction rules. In this work, we instead focus on the opportunity to use AI to promote social welfare through the design of optimal tax policies in dynamic economies. Many studies have shown that high income inequality can negatively impact economic growth and economic opportunity.
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Artificial Intelligence Can Devise An Optimal Tax Policy To Reduce Inequality -- AI Daily - Artificial Intelligence News
Identifying the optimal level of taxation is quite complex. Human behaviour is highly unpredictable and gathering data can be time consuming. Despite decades of economic research being put into finding the optimal tax rate, it remains an open problem. But, scientists at the US business technology company, Salesforce, believe they may have found the key to solving the problem – Artificial Intelligence. The team has developed an AI system called the AI Economist, which uses reinforcement learning technology to identify the optimal level of taxation to make reduce inequality.
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Salesforce researchers are working on an AI economist for more equitable tax policy – TechCrunch
Tax policy is surely a complex beast, and depending on your political leanings, you probably have some strong feelings about how it should be implemented. Salesforce AI researchers are trying to build a model to bring artificial intelligence to bear on what will undoubtedly always be a highly political process. Richard Socher, who heads up AI research at Salesforce, says the company is researching all kinds of solutions related to AI and business, and how it could improve the Salesforce product family; however, he also looks at how his team could use AI to solve a set of broader social issues beyond what it can do for the product line. Socher says when you look at the biggest issues of our time, one of the largest is economic inequality, and how we could use policy to solve that. To that end, the company created a model it calls an AI economist that could look at various economic variables, a broad set of economic models and using the power of AI begin to demonstrate how various policies affect economic inequality versus productivity.
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Salesforce's AI Economist taps reinforcement learning to generate optimal tax policies
Salesforce today announced the AI Economist, a research environment designed to elucidate how economic design might be improved with techniques from the field of AI and machine learning. The goal is to help economists, governments, and others design tax policies that optimize not only productivity and conservation, but that promote widespread, whole-country social equality. Studies have shown that income inequality gaps can negatively impact economic growth, economic opportunity, and even health. For example, over-taxation can discourage people from working, leading to lower productivity. But it's difficult to experiment with tax policies in the real world, at least in part because economic theory relies on stylized assumptions that are tough to validate, like people's sensitivity to taxes. The AI Economist, then, learns the best tax policies from simulations in which citizens and a government adapt and learn.
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